799 - How Many Meals for 1654 Learning Colleagues?
October 18, 2013 Learning TRENDS by Elliott Masie - October 18, 2013.
#799 - Updates on Learning, Business & Technology.
56,289 Readers - www.masie.com - twitter: emasie - The MASIE Center.
Host: Learning 2013 - Nov 3 to 6 - Orlando - 1,507 Registered Already!
1. How Many Meals to Order for 1,654 Learning Colleagues?
Let me take you behind the scenes of the planning process for Learning 2013 - as the countdown is just 17 days before we start in Orlando, Florida. The program content is now finalized, the Guide is at the printer and online and the A/V equipment is ordered. But, in the last two weeks - many of the Design decisions shift to predicting the exact number of people —- and making a “bet” on food orders! You see, we will order severl hundred thousands of dollars of food - and numbers mean everything!
Just like a big wedding, the food costs are based on how many people will be attending. Unlike a wedding, we will serve food from Sunday afternoon (coffee) through Wednesday breakfast - with 6 big meals and loads of breaks. So, how many cookies to order for an afternoon break or how many people will get up for Wednesday breakfast after a cool party the night before. It is all about numbers. And, as the author of the new ASTD book, Big Learning Data, this really is a BIG data question.
So, how many people will be at Learning 2013? Right now, we have approximately 1,507 people. On a daily basis we are taking about 18 to 22 more registrations. So, our projections - with only a few last minute cancels, take us to a projected number of 1,643. However, once the government shutdown ended, we took some Federal employee registrations. And, more and more people are waiting to the very last minute to register. But, using the “Elliott Curve”, we are pretty confident of the 1,645 target. However, not everyone comes to eat every meal.
Over 30 years, The MASIE Center, has developed our own formulas for predicting how many people will arrive at Learning 2013 by time breakfast is served on Monday morning, November 4th. And, how many of them will eat breakfast before the first session. Our predictor is about 87% But, we adjust that as the hotel gives us updates - and we have to make our final final head counts for food 3 days prior to each meal.
Our guarantee to our participants is that there will be food for them exactly when it is scheduled - and our guarantee to Disney is for an exact amount of food for them to prepare and serve. And our goal is to get those two numbers close - without wasting food or dollars.
Just like planning a wedding, you have to account for special needs and changes. Disney is fully equipped to handle people with unique eating requirements and people are not shy about alerting us to medical food needs. And, the logistics of preparing to serve a hearty and complex lunch to 1,643 people (give or take a handful) - is immense. Throughout Learning 2013, there is a major team from Disney, working with our Conference Manager, to make sure that the dozens of food carts are filled, just the right temperature and ready to roll out at exactly 6:45 for Breakfast or noon time for Lunch.
Design for an event is often a mixture of designing the learning experience - and also designing the community and hosting experience. So, for the next 17 days, our team is closely watching the daily registration numbers and the “Elliott Curve” - adjusting the number of Ice Cream Pops that will be handing out to each of you - as you come to the Broadway @ Learning Concert with 4 Musical Singing Stars on Tuesday night.
My Blog on Design Planning for Learning 2013 at: http://www.learning2013.com/blog/item/meals.html
Yours in learning,
Elliott Masie
Host, Learning 2013
email: emasie@masie.com
twitter: @emasie
MASIE Center Seminars, Events and Services:
* Learning 2013 - November 2013 - Orlando, Florida.
* Membership in The Learning CONSORTIUM
Info and Registration: http://www.masie.com - twitter: emasie